* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 100 99 95 86 80 74 65 53 43 37 V (KT) LAND 95 97 99 100 99 95 86 80 74 65 53 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 95 97 98 98 98 95 89 81 74 66 58 49 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 11 17 21 28 26 35 35 46 40 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 4 -1 -1 -5 -1 -5 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 152 170 166 181 159 178 192 202 197 206 215 234 227 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 162 161 157 149 142 138 138 139 131 129 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 149 148 144 135 126 121 121 122 114 111 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 7 7 6 8 7 6 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 52 55 52 53 53 58 48 41 40 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 11 12 14 12 14 16 15 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 16 0 2 -2 0 -24 1 14 59 72 56 36 45 200 MB DIV 64 26 14 20 12 43 98 53 65 54 30 19 40 700-850 TADV 14 5 3 2 2 1 2 -2 -6 -11 -12 7 12 LAND (KM) 183 205 235 191 136 71 56 140 116 83 121 87 22 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.5 19.0 20.2 21.6 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.0 23.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 84.9 85.3 85.8 86.2 86.6 86.4 86.0 85.3 84.3 83.1 82.4 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 7 6 4 5 6 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 122 129 129 114 88 59 17 66 62 55 48 44 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -12. -19. -24. -28. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 0. -9. -15. -21. -30. -42. -52. -58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 116.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/26/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 21( 48) 17( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 9( 12) 3( 14) 2( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)