* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/26/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 98 97 96 90 80 75 68 61 49 39 32 V (KT) LAND 95 97 98 97 96 90 80 75 68 61 49 39 32 V (KT) LGE mod 95 97 97 97 96 90 83 77 71 65 56 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 17 16 18 23 25 32 36 39 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 1 1 4 0 0 -5 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 175 172 160 164 170 190 206 207 201 205 220 231 233 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 159 156 150 143 140 141 141 136 134 132 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 147 144 137 128 125 125 124 118 114 112 110 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 6 7 6 8 7 7 5 4 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 55 50 55 54 60 60 51 42 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 12 13 13 12 15 14 15 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 0 1 -14 -11 13 31 56 54 37 42 40 200 MB DIV 28 17 26 32 30 57 67 75 81 61 32 24 33 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 5 2 3 5 0 -4 -11 7 7 8 LAND (KM) 177 226 168 117 66 20 45 128 69 62 52 44 44 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.6 21.7 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.5 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.9 86.6 85.7 84.4 83.4 82.9 82.6 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 3 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 118 119 101 82 64 44 2 64 59 43 44 41 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 3. 0. -6. -13. -20. -25. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 1. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -5. -15. -20. -27. -34. -46. -56. -63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/26/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 19( 47) 12( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)