* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/26/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 95 94 91 83 75 69 61 53 43 36 29 V (KT) LAND 95 95 95 94 91 83 75 69 61 53 43 36 29 V (KT) LGE mod 95 95 94 94 92 87 80 73 66 59 51 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 14 18 23 29 29 33 36 39 36 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 0 -3 0 -3 0 -6 -2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 185 172 156 181 184 186 205 199 209 212 235 231 255 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 156 150 142 141 139 137 135 135 135 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 146 144 137 128 126 123 119 116 116 116 112 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.5 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 6 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 56 53 51 56 58 62 54 47 47 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 3 -8 -14 -1 10 38 51 58 46 50 31 200 MB DIV 10 21 38 36 21 66 73 94 55 48 16 30 8 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 7 5 4 1 -1 -7 -2 8 7 6 LAND (KM) 202 204 156 109 62 10 128 99 83 67 15 8 33 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.1 19.7 21.0 22.2 23.1 23.5 23.5 23.1 23.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.7 86.1 86.5 86.8 86.8 86.0 84.9 83.8 83.1 82.7 82.2 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 6 7 6 4 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 118 114 98 78 60 26 69 59 53 55 10 19 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -14. -20. -26. -30. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -20. -26. -34. -42. -52. -59. -66. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/26/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 12( 39) 9( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)