* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 73 74 74 71 69 62 58 53 48 43 38 V (KT) LAND 75 73 73 74 74 57 60 53 49 44 39 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 68 68 69 55 60 58 55 50 44 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 16 18 15 22 28 35 35 34 30 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -5 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 192 166 160 159 163 186 180 200 205 216 233 231 251 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 153 150 147 140 136 139 142 136 132 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 140 137 134 125 119 123 126 118 112 112 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 53 55 55 54 58 54 46 46 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 13 13 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 -13 -19 -11 16 38 53 62 40 48 58 61 200 MB DIV 15 45 50 34 64 72 75 62 53 32 17 44 14 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 2 4 8 0 -3 -7 4 6 6 0 LAND (KM) 205 146 87 57 27 -10 91 143 39 34 62 54 16 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.4 20.0 21.3 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.2 86.7 86.9 87.1 87.0 86.8 85.8 84.2 83.1 82.9 82.6 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 6 4 6 6 4 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 115 95 75 62 45 0 10 71 57 24 62 61 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. -4. -6. -13. -17. -22. -27. -32. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/26/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/26/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 5( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)