* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/27/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 76 76 74 71 67 62 56 50 44 40 35 V (KT) LAND 75 75 76 76 74 65 61 57 50 41 41 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 74 74 73 66 64 60 56 45 46 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 19 20 26 29 35 30 34 31 29 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 2 1 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 183 185 176 181 193 196 196 199 216 240 244 263 253 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 152 147 144 138 137 139 141 142 140 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 139 134 130 122 120 122 123 122 119 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 8 8 7 6 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 54 54 53 61 54 55 55 61 60 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 10 10 11 13 14 13 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -10 -16 -16 -6 14 54 63 55 38 52 53 41 200 MB DIV 24 42 36 60 77 63 69 63 40 12 50 38 24 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 6 8 1 -3 -7 -3 3 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 147 108 69 47 5 59 181 113 16 -19 2 17 -12 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.7 22.0 22.9 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.5 86.8 86.9 87.0 86.8 86.1 85.1 83.9 83.2 83.0 82.9 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 96 80 65 59 38 2 72 59 32 2 5 19 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -31. -35. -40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/27/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 2( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)