* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/27/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 63 61 59 54 50 44 41 39 34 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 53 52 49 44 40 34 32 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 62 62 53 51 51 49 46 43 40 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 20 26 25 29 33 35 31 29 21 19 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 0 1 -6 -3 -4 -4 0 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 175 166 158 178 186 188 197 205 217 232 240 263 252 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 148 146 142 138 140 142 142 145 149 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 136 134 132 127 120 122 124 122 126 128 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 8 9 8 7 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 55 51 56 56 45 44 50 61 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -17 -12 -2 9 29 55 55 32 31 50 34 21 200 MB DIV 31 29 55 64 65 62 59 22 19 33 87 42 14 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 5 6 -1 -6 -7 0 2 6 0 2 LAND (KM) 90 68 45 29 -16 15 91 76 50 0 45 38 -10 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.3 22.1 21.5 21.6 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.9 87.0 87.1 87.1 86.9 86.2 85.4 84.8 84.3 83.9 83.9 84.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 3 4 3 2 3 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 79 67 58 53 10 1 47 74 74 80 102 100 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -21. -24. -26. -31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/27/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)