* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/27/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 59 57 55 53 50 46 43 41 41 37 31 V (KT) LAND 65 61 59 48 43 44 41 38 35 33 33 29 22 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 59 50 44 46 45 44 42 41 41 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 25 24 25 29 32 31 22 18 22 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 -5 -5 -7 -7 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 174 184 182 190 182 182 198 205 224 212 217 230 256 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 141 139 139 140 141 142 146 145 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 130 126 122 121 122 122 122 126 125 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 56 53 54 60 52 50 48 54 61 59 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 12 10 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -12 -1 10 9 41 42 38 28 43 51 42 18 200 MB DIV 24 52 63 63 62 61 30 24 22 63 53 21 8 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 5 0 -3 -6 -3 2 3 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 54 34 13 -4 -20 20 79 92 75 91 121 125 149 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.8 21.6 21.3 21.1 20.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.1 87.2 87.2 87.1 86.7 86.2 85.7 85.5 85.5 85.7 85.7 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 65 46 36 31 81 11 48 81 87 94 94 99 106 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. -28. -34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/27/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)