* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 54 53 52 49 46 45 45 45 46 42 V (KT) LAND 60 57 49 44 46 44 42 38 38 37 37 39 34 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 45 42 45 45 44 43 43 44 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 30 29 29 28 30 27 25 20 13 8 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 177 186 186 186 176 179 194 213 212 191 167 157 256 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 140 137 140 142 144 144 149 153 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 126 124 120 121 123 124 125 131 136 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 5 5 3 5 4 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 52 55 52 53 59 61 51 50 58 65 63 62 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 7 7 8 10 12 12 11 13 13 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -12 -6 -2 6 40 51 28 31 49 47 41 40 200 MB DIV 50 56 59 79 91 53 29 22 66 50 24 25 11 700-850 TADV 7 9 4 0 0 -4 -2 0 0 0 2 9 8 LAND (KM) 34 21 -4 -20 0 52 82 93 83 100 147 155 146 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.4 19.6 19.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.2 87.2 87.1 87.0 86.4 86.1 86.0 86.1 86.1 86.0 86.0 86.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 30 81 0 18 74 88 89 94 93 96 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -13. -11. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/27/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)