* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 42 40 38 36 34 31 33 36 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 50 40 37 35 37 35 33 30 32 36 38 37 37 V (KT) LGE mod 50 40 37 35 33 35 34 32 31 31 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 34 29 29 36 31 32 23 15 9 9 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 -4 -4 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 188 191 191 178 179 191 206 220 197 213 175 181 161 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 138 137 139 143 144 148 152 154 156 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 121 119 120 125 125 131 135 139 141 141 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 5 4 3 5 4 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 53 50 53 57 59 55 54 55 65 68 65 66 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -17 -10 0 25 35 43 21 46 61 72 68 94 200 MB DIV 47 52 57 69 80 59 37 23 53 65 58 53 36 700-850 TADV 9 5 1 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 1 1 10 21 12 LAND (KM) 13 -15 -36 -20 0 62 83 108 134 126 87 114 108 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.1 20.9 20.4 19.8 19.0 18.2 17.5 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.3 87.3 87.1 86.9 86.3 86.1 86.0 86.1 86.3 86.8 87.0 87.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 19 57 78 3 73 89 98 91 85 82 75 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -17. -16. -14. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -17. -13. -11. -12. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)