* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/28/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 45 44 41 41 41 42 42 42 39 34 V (KT) LAND 50 51 49 48 47 45 44 44 45 46 46 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 48 46 45 43 41 40 40 42 45 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 31 34 33 34 24 16 13 15 16 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -4 -4 -3 -6 -5 -1 -7 -3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 186 183 178 183 188 201 198 202 210 193 180 181 204 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 142 143 151 155 154 152 155 158 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 122 123 126 135 138 135 134 142 147 138 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 5 4 6 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 53 54 60 60 57 52 49 56 63 67 72 75 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -6 5 27 35 33 24 18 30 57 78 79 77 200 MB DIV 57 66 76 88 65 36 27 16 43 54 43 44 42 700-850 TADV 5 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 4 7 9 7 18 17 13 LAND (KM) -16 5 31 51 72 114 173 166 131 111 129 87 127 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.3 19.3 19.1 19.3 18.6 16.9 16.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 86.9 86.6 86.4 86.2 86.0 85.8 85.9 86.2 86.5 86.6 86.8 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 3 5 3 1 2 6 6 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 18 26 62 85 98 104 101 86 84 77 70 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -11. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/28/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)