* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 35 31 29 26 24 22 21 18 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 39 35 31 29 26 24 22 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 38 38 36 33 30 29 29 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 34 38 37 37 35 28 24 19 18 19 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -8 -6 -6 -6 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 185 182 185 192 200 206 223 218 226 212 206 194 205 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 142 145 150 151 153 153 156 155 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 120 120 125 127 132 132 135 137 140 141 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 54 57 62 57 53 51 48 55 58 63 64 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 26 38 40 34 8 21 22 37 50 57 62 200 MB DIV 59 57 95 85 46 27 17 18 11 13 40 46 41 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -5 -4 -5 -1 2 8 6 10 19 24 15 LAND (KM) 15 38 61 72 93 117 135 147 134 123 114 138 138 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.4 21.1 20.4 20.0 19.6 19.1 18.5 17.7 17.2 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 86.6 86.4 86.2 86.0 85.9 86.0 86.0 86.2 86.4 86.8 86.9 86.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 17 56 88 100 98 93 88 89 81 77 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/28/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)