* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/28/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 24 23 22 20 17 18 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 24 23 22 20 17 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 21 19 18 17 18 19 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 40 40 38 40 35 21 19 17 17 15 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -4 -5 -2 -4 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 188 193 206 206 206 218 216 214 189 203 193 202 205 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 140 142 145 150 153 155 156 156 156 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 121 123 127 132 136 139 140 142 143 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 4 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 52 47 48 55 60 60 63 62 75 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 18 33 38 45 12 8 33 39 47 60 75 73 200 MB DIV 64 89 82 52 35 22 24 42 30 29 40 38 57 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -5 -9 -6 2 6 6 6 11 16 15 11 LAND (KM) 68 111 88 67 52 112 183 197 145 104 122 87 48 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.1 21.9 21.7 20.9 20.2 19.7 19.1 18.4 17.4 16.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.0 85.6 85.5 85.3 85.3 85.3 85.5 86.1 86.6 87.0 87.4 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 67 70 78 86 105 114 118 109 90 76 72 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -13. -16. -19. -20. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/28/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/28/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)