* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 11/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 39 36 32 29 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 39 36 32 29 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 38 35 31 29 29 31 33 34 35 34 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 58 56 50 49 47 30 30 22 31 30 35 38 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -3 -6 -9 -3 -3 -1 -3 -4 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 249 254 264 263 259 273 290 300 306 321 321 301 278 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 118 117 117 116 116 113 109 108 110 111 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 100 100 97 97 98 99 95 91 90 94 99 102 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -52.2 -53.0 -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 33 33 37 37 41 48 53 53 54 56 54 58 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 16 14 13 13 13 11 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 101 101 103 95 95 85 86 91 84 72 37 97 200 MB DIV 18 -2 2 0 19 46 17 34 7 -16 -34 -10 79 700-850 TADV -14 -7 -3 -4 5 4 1 3 1 1 4 -3 17 LAND (KM) 951 916 883 885 888 929 959 906 855 826 828 828 944 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.7 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 68.5 68.2 68.1 68.0 68.1 69.0 70.0 70.4 70.6 70.3 69.0 65.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 3 1 1 3 5 4 2 1 5 14 19 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 8 8 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -21. -24. -26. -29. -34. -38. -40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 11/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 11/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 11/06/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)