* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 11/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 37 35 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 37 35 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 41 39 37 35 35 37 38 39 40 40 40 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 57 53 49 43 37 27 28 35 35 40 38 36 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -7 -12 -13 -4 -4 -6 -8 -11 -3 0 7 SHEAR DIR 255 259 261 260 262 267 284 288 292 296 298 237 191 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 114 113 113 111 109 105 102 103 107 109 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 96 95 96 96 94 90 85 87 93 99 107 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -51.8 -52.8 -53.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 -54.5 -55.5 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 32 39 42 44 47 50 51 52 49 50 51 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 16 18 17 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 87 81 78 72 77 68 64 59 59 79 69 85 103 200 MB DIV -2 -7 2 34 37 23 -8 -10 -36 -28 -14 49 93 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -3 5 -1 6 0 0 2 3 2 -20 -133 LAND (KM) 967 994 1023 1054 1054 894 716 599 525 515 515 551 636 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.5 33.7 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 67.9 67.3 67.4 67.4 68.8 70.9 72.8 73.7 73.5 72.6 70.3 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 3 5 8 9 6 2 3 10 21 26 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -33. -34. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 11/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 11/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 11/06/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)