* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 11/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 35 33 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 35 33 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 34 33 34 35 36 36 34 32 29 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 43 34 26 25 21 38 36 30 44 55 58 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -6 -8 -5 -5 -4 -8 -7 -5 -2 -11 -9 7 SHEAR DIR 258 250 254 260 258 288 298 298 307 307 282 259 239 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 116 115 116 114 113 112 113 114 114 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 97 97 98 97 95 93 95 97 102 108 107 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 34 36 38 39 43 43 44 45 47 44 45 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 19 20 18 17 16 15 12 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 100 112 117 115 110 94 99 100 70 66 45 31 200 MB DIV -10 9 11 37 21 3 -35 -52 -48 -58 -7 11 54 700-850 TADV 0 12 3 7 1 0 -3 0 0 2 1 -35 -87 LAND (KM) 908 918 929 942 956 907 868 849 863 898 888 974 851 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 29.8 32.7 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.8 68.8 69.1 69.4 70.4 71.4 71.6 71.0 70.4 69.1 65.9 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 4 4 3 1 3 5 14 25 31 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -15. -20. -26. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -24. -30. -33. -36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 11/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 11/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 11/07/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)