* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 11/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 35 35 32 30 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 35 35 32 30 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 35 35 36 37 38 37 36 33 31 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 39 32 28 28 21 39 26 36 48 53 49 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -8 -3 -6 -4 -7 -8 -2 -5 -13 0 6 SHEAR DIR 249 251 258 257 270 286 307 302 318 306 279 247 217 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.3 25.7 25.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 117 117 116 116 114 112 113 115 114 114 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 99 99 98 98 95 93 95 100 104 108 100 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.5 -51.2 -51.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 34 35 38 40 41 45 43 47 46 41 49 61 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 99 103 109 114 113 108 97 95 56 60 55 37 200 MB DIV 10 10 14 0 2 -7 -28 -33 -70 -53 -4 35 65 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 8 3 2 0 1 1 2 -4 -50 -138 LAND (KM) 884 894 903 916 929 914 845 854 879 889 872 968 709 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.5 30.3 34.1 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.0 69.1 69.5 69.9 70.9 71.6 71.5 71.2 70.7 68.8 65.0 59.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 4 1 1 2 7 19 29 33 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 5 4 5 3 3 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):207/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -10. -14. -21. -26. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -8. -10. -14. -23. -29. -30. -32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 11/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 11/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 11/07/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)