* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 11/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 34 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 34 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 39 39 39 40 40 39 36 32 28 25 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 37 33 30 23 31 38 34 45 55 61 67 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -7 -7 -4 -5 -6 0 -12 -14 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 249 260 257 267 278 299 305 311 319 293 262 230 216 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.7 25.9 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 117 116 116 115 111 114 116 120 116 112 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 99 99 99 97 94 96 97 105 106 103 97 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.8 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 33 36 41 39 41 42 46 50 41 39 50 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 14 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 92 101 102 99 105 96 74 58 48 56 1 200 MB DIV 4 -8 -19 2 0 -36 -54 -66 -91 -54 3 31 65 700-850 TADV -3 0 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 -67 -46 LAND (KM) 893 895 897 892 889 811 752 742 694 717 878 900 961 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.8 28.9 32.2 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.4 69.7 70.3 70.8 71.9 72.5 72.6 72.8 72.5 70.3 67.0 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 4 2 2 1 8 18 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 6 5 8 8 9 13 12 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -26. -33. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -17. -26. -33. -36. -42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 11/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 11/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 11/07/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)