* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 11/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 41 40 40 36 30 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 41 40 40 36 30 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 42 44 46 47 46 43 37 30 26 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 28 23 25 28 20 28 35 47 73 94 81 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -6 -8 -7 -5 -5 -2 -8 1 -6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 280 290 298 306 287 305 313 275 231 228 225 235 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 118 118 117 115 110 105 103 100 101 100 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 99 99 99 97 94 91 89 87 87 86 87 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -52.8 -54.0 -57.7 -59.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 4 2 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 36 40 44 47 49 54 54 52 57 38 24 23 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 17 17 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 118 122 115 116 115 102 83 98 81 -22 -129 -141 200 MB DIV -19 -9 -20 -25 4 -22 -37 -41 16 1 3 38 17 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 6 -15 -172 -127 -49 -13 LAND (KM) 810 820 830 845 859 912 836 753 728 735 831 861 849 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -20. -32. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -10. -18. -27. -34. -36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 11/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 11/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 11/08/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)