* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 42 45 44 41 38 37 33 27 23 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 42 45 44 41 38 37 33 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 42 44 46 48 50 50 49 47 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 24 28 25 18 27 33 41 35 49 69 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -9 -8 -7 -3 -2 -6 -5 10 19 4 -9 SHEAR DIR 274 281 290 303 304 279 318 303 272 233 221 233 248 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.0 25.0 24.5 22.1 14.3 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 115 116 115 109 106 105 108 108 94 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 97 98 98 93 91 92 98 101 87 70 69 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -54.9 -55.5 -55.6 -54.8 -54.5 -55.6 -57.3 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 45 51 54 55 61 58 54 58 46 36 36 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 111 111 106 101 99 96 72 103 62 -63 -127 -104 200 MB DIV 0 -9 -15 6 -6 6 -58 -19 36 38 38 33 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 2 5 3 3 31 -133 -24 -58 -105 LAND (KM) 878 884 889 908 927 853 782 764 870 893 753 522 797 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 29.2 30.0 31.2 32.9 35.9 40.0 43.0 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 69.4 69.4 69.7 70.0 70.3 70.4 69.4 67.0 62.1 55.1 49.0 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 2 3 5 5 5 10 19 30 30 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -21. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/08/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)