* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 46 45 44 36 28 22 19 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 46 45 44 36 28 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 49 51 52 54 53 49 42 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 28 24 19 19 28 27 25 42 71 82 94 92 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -11 -8 -3 -5 -4 -5 0 11 14 3 -12 -16 SHEAR DIR 271 292 297 289 281 315 300 272 211 228 224 230 247 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.3 24.7 24.1 22.7 20.1 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 114 112 111 110 110 110 106 101 93 81 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 95 95 94 94 97 100 95 90 82 74 70 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -56.0 -58.0 -59.1 -60.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 46 51 54 56 56 51 54 36 33 35 36 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 22 23 22 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 96 99 106 107 92 86 99 53 -81 -128 -120 -121 200 MB DIV -11 -18 -15 -3 0 -51 8 15 30 20 49 36 13 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 3 2 8 5 -5 -147 -66 -70 -85 -77 LAND (KM) 895 911 926 928 895 858 865 991 962 886 825 683 717 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.3 30.6 32.7 35.3 37.5 39.3 40.8 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.0 70.1 70.2 70.3 70.1 68.6 65.7 61.9 58.4 54.6 50.7 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 6 13 18 19 18 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -15. -24. -33. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -9. -17. -23. -26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/09/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)