* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 58 56 55 59 53 46 33 24 23 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 58 56 55 59 53 46 33 24 23 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 61 62 63 60 51 41 37 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 20 18 23 18 29 41 44 69 53 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -1 -3 0 11 12 15 4 9 10 6 SHEAR DIR 284 267 285 307 307 290 241 202 215 239 259 243 223 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.5 23.4 13.4 13.1 13.2 12.9 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 110 109 108 108 106 101 74 71 70 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 95 95 95 97 98 96 72 69 67 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -56.2 -54.7 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 49 51 51 54 49 34 29 37 32 38 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 27 26 24 22 19 17 26 29 30 22 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 102 100 108 103 94 134 130 24 -118 -60 19 45 62 200 MB DIV -13 2 -14 -17 -5 33 59 41 40 40 -5 14 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 10 7 5 -7 8 -50 -55 -71 -39 -42 -53 LAND (KM) 913 879 845 811 785 865 921 771 491 820 1236 1475 1203 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.9 30.7 32.8 35.4 39.0 43.3 46.5 48.3 49.3 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 70.7 70.7 70.2 69.6 67.1 63.2 57.0 49.1 42.1 36.2 30.8 26.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 10 12 18 26 34 33 25 20 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -1. 2. 2. -5. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 4. -2. -9. -22. -31. -32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/09/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)