* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 57 56 56 54 40 24 20 21 16 18 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 57 56 56 54 40 24 20 21 16 18 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 60 62 63 58 47 38 35 37 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 21 22 11 30 61 83 82 69 46 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -2 -4 5 9 15 2 -10 -10 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 253 278 305 312 316 270 210 214 223 238 246 256 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.6 24.3 21.7 16.5 13.7 15.3 14.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 108 107 107 106 104 89 74 70 72 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 92 93 93 95 97 95 81 70 67 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -55.5 -54.7 -55.0 -56.0 -57.2 -57.5 -57.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 53 54 52 54 42 31 29 22 20 28 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 25 22 21 18 16 8 3 8 13 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 95 94 92 105 132 82 -60 -97 -69 -38 5 N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -22 -21 -3 -7 48 62 48 44 25 3 2 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 8 7 2 1 -42 -34 -105 -104 -157 -108 -47 N/A LAND (KM) 842 820 802 799 809 948 798 705 527 622 920 1248 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.9 31.7 34.3 37.6 40.3 42.2 43.9 44.9 45.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.6 70.3 70.0 69.2 68.4 65.0 60.1 55.7 51.0 46.2 41.5 36.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 11 15 23 24 21 20 18 18 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -12. -21. -27. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -18. -22. -19. -15. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -15. -31. -35. -34. -39. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/10/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)