* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 54 55 51 36 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 54 54 55 51 36 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 57 58 60 60 52 42 37 36 39 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 20 20 18 14 39 65 76 52 40 29 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -1 2 7 6 13 3 13 9 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 268 300 306 311 289 239 192 211 232 244 239 237 N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.4 21.3 11.8 11.0 14.3 13.6 14.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 106 107 108 106 90 70 69 71 69 70 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 91 94 95 98 99 84 68 67 67 67 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.6 -55.2 -54.6 -53.9 -54.7 -54.0 -54.5 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 52 53 51 49 39 33 29 33 38 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 24 23 21 19 17 13 6 6 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 100 104 120 130 112 50 -73 -60 23 27 30 N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -19 -6 3 34 57 62 35 69 9 0 -5 N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 2 6 -7 -51 -214 -101 -149 -96 -103 -86 N/A LAND (KM) 771 773 777 812 874 839 653 376 626 998 1366 1402 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.4 30.9 32.0 33.0 36.3 40.6 43.8 45.9 47.4 47.9 48.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.8 70.2 69.5 68.2 66.9 62.5 56.2 50.6 45.0 39.5 34.5 29.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 12 15 20 29 29 24 21 19 18 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -4. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -4. -19. -31. -38. -40. -41. -36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/10/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)