* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 53 52 52 50 35 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 53 52 52 50 35 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 56 57 58 53 42 33 30 30 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 21 18 15 33 49 63 44 35 29 35 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 4 17 5 15 20 23 20 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 294 306 304 292 259 217 183 206 224 239 240 252 N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.4 23.7 13.5 8.1 13.2 12.4 13.3 14.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 105 106 107 106 103 74 68 70 68 69 70 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 93 95 98 98 96 71 67 67 65 66 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 -55.2 -54.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.2 -54.0 -56.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 54 49 46 38 31 30 42 45 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 21 19 17 17 24 34 29 20 13 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 107 123 144 158 120 27 -71 -3 34 78 36 N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -5 -2 47 57 76 50 51 15 17 0 2 N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 2 -37 1 -96 -189 -112 -52 -30 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 739 749 769 841 887 679 366 466 887 1272 1516 1222 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.0 31.7 33.2 34.7 38.8 43.4 46.7 48.5 49.3 48.8 48.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.8 69.9 68.9 67.2 65.5 60.3 53.0 46.8 40.9 35.6 31.1 26.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 16 21 25 32 32 24 20 16 16 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -7. -12. -14. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -1. 6. 3. -5. -13. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -20. -33. -41. -46. -43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/10/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)