* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 55 52 51 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 55 52 51 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 56 57 55 45 34 27 25 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 20 14 19 54 69 71 54 31 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 6 9 19 22 9 11 19 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 299 279 246 217 213 201 227 235 241 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.4 20.7 10.7 9.8 14.0 13.4 13.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 108 106 107 88 69 68 70 69 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 96 99 99 100 82 68 66 67 66 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -54.8 -54.0 -53.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -55.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 52 52 54 52 43 28 29 32 39 41 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 19 17 17 20 30 31 26 12 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 122 131 138 140 93 -23 -71 -11 29 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 16 44 62 65 66 22 67 17 16 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -6 2 -37 -55 8 -100 -165 -160 -114 -58 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 772 787 834 918 827 601 308 571 963 1333 1411 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.6 32.7 34.5 36.3 40.9 44.3 46.4 47.8 48.2 48.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.0 68.8 67.5 65.3 63.0 56.7 51.1 45.5 39.9 34.9 29.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 21 26 30 30 25 21 18 18 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 798 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -18. -20. -21. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 5. 6. 1. -11. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -4. -15. -30. -45. -51. -52. -48. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/10/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/10/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)