* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192011 11/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 54 53 43 46 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 54 53 43 46 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 51 40 30 24 23 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 18 15 29 65 83 82 62 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 8 14 17 13 0 3 17 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 282 260 234 220 214 217 231 240 244 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.4 24.3 20.8 13.9 11.9 14.6 14.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 109 108 107 105 86 71 69 71 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 100 100 100 96 79 68 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 49 43 30 28 27 26 35 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 17 17 16 13 31 30 15 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 128 128 133 111 5 -76 -58 6 32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 56 33 46 87 44 45 49 10 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -10 -57 8 -49 -151 -164 -158 -106 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 807 875 982 890 770 667 442 614 946 1319 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 32.4 33.7 35.8 37.8 40.8 43.1 44.9 46.0 47.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.0 67.2 65.4 62.9 60.3 55.6 50.7 45.6 40.6 35.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 20 25 29 26 23 21 20 18 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -8. -18. -27. -29. -33. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. 6. 6. -7. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 11. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -12. -9. -20. -43. -49. -53. -55. -51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 SEAN 11/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192011 SEAN 11/11/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192011 SEAN 11/11/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)