* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 32 37 40 41 43 45 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 32 37 40 41 43 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 16 17 9 5 5 9 7 10 12 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 -5 -3 -3 -1 -5 -1 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 122 137 157 170 171 170 181 169 192 185 212 176 190 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 136 137 140 142 143 145 145 143 139 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 76 70 65 62 57 58 59 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 53 43 43 38 31 13 1 -1 -9 6 4 200 MB DIV 17 26 43 52 57 74 105 104 43 31 66 96 79 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 -3 0 6 3 4 LAND (KM) 617 643 679 690 682 667 690 738 796 893 997 1150 1284 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.5 12.7 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.8 95.6 96.6 97.6 99.6 101.5 103.5 105.7 108.4 111.0 113.2 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 4 4 7 6 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 17. 20. 21. 23. 25. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##