* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 42 45 51 54 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 42 45 51 54 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 23 25 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 18 11 9 10 4 6 2 9 8 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 143 160 174 177 169 236 215 195 148 160 162 135 105 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 136 137 141 143 145 146 145 143 139 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 76 73 69 65 59 54 60 57 55 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 10 10 10 11 12 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 46 46 41 33 30 14 -1 -2 -7 15 10 200 MB DIV 12 27 49 70 80 119 104 73 23 36 49 105 85 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 3 0 1 -3 LAND (KM) 643 678 689 673 662 641 667 711 759 866 1001 1187 1354 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.1 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.7 96.5 97.4 98.3 100.1 101.9 103.8 106.0 108.4 110.8 113.1 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 4 6 8 6 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 25. 31. 34. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/17/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##