* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 30 36 41 46 50 55 60 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 30 36 41 46 50 55 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 29 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 8 8 2 2 3 0 8 8 9 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 -2 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 155 171 166 163 142 178 173 107 127 190 133 95 84 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 137 139 142 144 146 146 144 141 137 134 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.6 -54.3 -53.2 -54.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 74 72 67 64 59 56 55 54 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 16 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 59 47 45 44 39 34 22 8 3 3 21 15 15 200 MB DIV 26 48 63 76 108 127 106 47 41 48 97 114 87 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 2 1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 682 700 688 672 657 658 682 742 813 910 1049 1227 1340 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.4 12.1 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.4 97.3 98.3 99.2 101.0 102.7 104.8 107.2 109.5 111.6 113.6 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 3 2 7 4 6 7 5 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 35. 40. 42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##