* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 43 51 57 66 69 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 43 51 57 66 69 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 29 32 34 37 42 48 55 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 7 10 7 3 2 3 6 6 8 14 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -6 -8 -8 -9 SHEAR DIR 167 146 127 130 163 228 153 64 81 78 80 72 76 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 138 140 141 143 144 143 140 137 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 76 71 70 68 62 59 56 57 57 53 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 16 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 44 39 29 25 17 8 13 26 39 30 27 200 MB DIV 42 56 64 91 110 94 60 12 60 97 125 71 64 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 707 704 698 689 683 715 783 855 966 1097 1275 1475 1606 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.3 10.9 10.3 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.9 97.9 98.9 99.8 101.6 103.6 106.1 108.7 110.9 113.0 115.0 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 9 9 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 3 2 5 3 5 3 3 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 8. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 26. 32. 41. 44. 45. 47. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##