* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 50 58 66 71 75 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 50 58 66 71 75 76 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 43 49 57 65 71 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 8 4 3 2 7 7 14 15 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -5 -5 -2 0 -2 -4 -6 -9 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 146 130 114 143 167 127 110 78 85 80 68 72 52 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 138 140 142 143 144 143 140 136 133 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.2 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 71 71 69 66 60 59 57 55 50 46 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 12 14 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 41 29 25 15 8 5 16 35 36 32 21 200 MB DIV 53 68 84 103 88 81 34 38 63 95 56 55 80 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 -1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 733 713 702 691 687 728 800 874 986 1120 1296 1445 1502 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.4 11.0 10.7 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 97.2 98.1 99.0 99.9 101.9 104.2 106.9 109.3 111.4 113.4 115.0 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 3 3 2 4 4 4 3 2 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 25. 33. 41. 46. 50. 51. 52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##