* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 59 68 70 71 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 59 68 70 71 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 43 48 52 55 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 3 2 4 5 9 11 10 4 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -1 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 153 127 131 105 106 159 72 90 98 99 103 97 42 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 139 140 142 144 145 144 142 139 135 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 64 59 58 56 54 49 45 44 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 13 16 18 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 59 48 37 32 25 12 5 6 8 27 19 19 2 200 MB DIV 63 86 104 97 86 55 31 77 74 109 77 45 35 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3 1 -3 -4 -8 LAND (KM) 734 711 695 683 679 718 780 824 919 1023 1181 1254 1321 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.4 98.3 99.2 100.0 101.9 104.2 106.5 108.8 111.0 113.4 115.7 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 11 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 3 3 3 3 5 6 3 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 34. 43. 45. 46. 44. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##