* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 60 66 70 71 72 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 60 66 70 71 72 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 48 52 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 5 3 4 10 10 12 3 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -2 -1 -5 -2 -7 -1 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 143 129 123 114 104 68 80 103 105 72 32 2 77 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 140 141 142 145 146 143 141 138 135 130 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.4 -53.4 -54.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 63 60 59 60 60 57 52 47 46 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 49 37 32 24 14 9 0 2 12 23 13 -1 -17 200 MB DIV 87 93 85 69 66 23 46 67 90 83 62 53 43 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 -2 -10 -7 LAND (KM) 705 693 682 675 682 729 764 817 903 1010 1147 1180 1239 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.9 98.8 99.7 100.6 102.6 104.8 107.1 109.2 111.3 113.5 115.6 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 3 2 5 3 6 7 3 1 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 10. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 35. 41. 45. 46. 47. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##