* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902011 11/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 32 40 49 57 63 62 60 59 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 32 40 49 57 63 62 60 59 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 44 45 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 2 4 11 12 4 4 7 10 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 -2 -5 -4 0 6 9 12 7 3 SHEAR DIR 117 95 110 198 32 67 86 114 352 30 351 34 51 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 140 141 141 144 143 142 140 137 134 133 127 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.6 -53.5 -54.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 60 63 61 59 51 50 48 51 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 14 13 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 37 26 11 3 6 -3 -1 14 25 22 4 1 -4 200 MB DIV 76 48 36 9 -17 38 66 129 78 44 47 65 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 1 -3 -4 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 730 728 738 755 774 820 875 974 1105 1249 1333 1399 1492 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.9 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.9 100.7 101.7 102.7 104.9 107.1 109.1 111.3 113.5 115.7 117.9 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 2 5 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. 6. 6. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 15. 24. 32. 38. 37. 35. 34. 29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902011 INVEST 11/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902011 INVEST 11/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##