* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132011 11/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 44 56 68 71 71 72 73 68 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 44 56 68 71 71 72 73 68 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 36 38 42 47 54 59 62 63 60 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 7 9 16 13 6 3 1 4 1 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 -5 -6 -6 -2 4 10 10 15 16 15 SHEAR DIR 103 190 300 338 47 76 80 101 152 38 64 178 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.6 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 144 145 144 142 140 136 135 131 121 115 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.4 -53.2 -54.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 58 60 61 55 49 48 51 49 46 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 12 12 14 19 17 15 15 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 11 5 0 7 33 33 31 15 10 16 24 200 MB DIV 48 12 -6 9 50 108 140 85 39 13 30 15 -37 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 0 -6 -8 -7 1 LAND (KM) 751 768 785 797 799 891 990 1104 1252 1344 1492 1602 1672 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.5 103.4 104.5 105.5 107.9 109.9 111.9 114.0 116.5 119.3 121.5 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 6 5 4 4 4 3 0 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 10. 8. 8. 9. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 26. 38. 41. 41. 42. 43. 38. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 THIRTEEN 11/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 THIRTEEN 11/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##