* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 37 37 36 37 35 37 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 37 37 36 37 35 37 34 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 18 16 16 16 17 18 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 36 35 39 49 49 44 28 22 39 42 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 3 1 -6 0 6 3 -4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 252 263 259 250 249 245 240 238 231 239 273 294 287 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.1 24.3 24.2 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 127 127 126 125 124 118 109 100 96 100 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 111 111 109 110 113 110 100 87 83 88 86 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.2 -54.5 -55.7 -58.0 -57.8 -58.2 -57.9 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 7 7 4 3 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 55 52 48 44 39 36 40 46 52 51 40 28 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 14 17 19 21 22 21 22 20 23 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 117 115 122 134 130 125 105 84 74 56 15 -16 -35 200 MB DIV 47 49 63 70 78 60 43 37 56 31 -6 -21 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 4 5 6 7 0 -7 -18 -1 12 5 LAND (KM) 1307 1277 1249 1233 1219 1264 1497 1891 2044 2027 2025 1890 1684 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.1 23.4 24.1 25.3 27.1 29.2 30.6 30.7 31.3 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.3 54.7 55.0 55.3 55.2 53.3 49.9 45.9 42.1 41.9 43.8 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 6 14 19 19 10 4 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 29 27 21 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. -8. -16. -22. -28. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 9. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 11. 12. 10. 12. 9. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/20/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)