* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132011 11/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 36 40 53 62 69 72 71 70 62 60 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 36 40 53 62 69 72 71 70 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 39 45 52 57 61 61 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 10 13 15 11 12 9 10 5 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -6 -5 -6 -2 1 5 8 17 11 10 SHEAR DIR 85 277 23 56 65 77 86 67 71 74 97 209 156 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 144 144 143 139 136 134 132 126 117 114 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 63 61 62 55 47 52 51 49 43 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 13 13 16 18 18 18 17 16 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 6 4 4 22 40 34 36 11 18 18 39 200 MB DIV -13 -14 11 45 82 95 98 47 75 33 42 -18 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -1 -3 1 0 -3 -7 -8 -9 -3 2 LAND (KM) 816 828 837 856 891 1015 1143 1298 1397 1509 1633 1720 1793 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.2 105.1 106.3 107.4 110.0 112.1 114.2 116.2 118.5 120.9 122.9 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 12 10 10 11 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 10. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 10. 23. 32. 39. 42. 41. 40. 32. 30. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 THIRTEEN 11/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 THIRTEEN 11/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##