* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132011 11/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 42 53 62 66 71 72 68 66 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 42 53 62 66 71 72 68 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 33 34 39 44 50 54 58 59 58 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 10 13 14 13 2 5 6 12 8 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -4 -4 0 7 7 7 2 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 182 64 101 90 72 73 73 70 65 63 92 142 132 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.6 25.8 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 144 143 140 137 135 134 130 122 115 114 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.1 -54.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 65 62 57 52 49 53 52 46 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 14 15 16 19 19 18 18 19 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 1 2 6 37 34 30 15 8 17 27 25 200 MB DIV -10 13 56 87 121 137 89 36 45 35 15 -17 -24 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -9 -10 -2 1 7 LAND (KM) 826 844 863 910 963 1076 1218 1351 1450 1552 1644 1744 1846 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.1 12.9 13.3 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.3 106.5 107.7 108.8 111.0 113.2 115.2 117.2 119.3 121.6 123.6 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 4 5 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 10. 9. 9. 10. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 23. 32. 36. 41. 42. 38. 36. 33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 THIRTEEN 11/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 THIRTEEN 11/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##