* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 45 50 53 53 53 51 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 45 50 53 53 53 51 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 25 28 30 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 34 34 40 32 29 21 31 42 38 29 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 7 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 247 244 250 240 232 221 226 224 253 283 275 230 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 121 118 115 110 104 101 99 101 99 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 108 107 104 101 99 94 88 83 87 86 83 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -54.9 -56.1 -56.8 -58.4 -58.3 -58.3 -57.2 -57.1 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 54 49 50 47 45 44 51 47 37 30 33 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 14 16 19 20 21 20 20 20 22 22 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 112 108 109 114 117 104 104 87 67 21 8 11 53 200 MB DIV 54 66 78 94 101 81 62 52 6 0 -8 5 21 700-850 TADV 3 0 5 11 2 1 -6 -24 -30 -6 7 13 3 LAND (KM) 1408 1425 1447 1497 1550 1716 1971 1895 1959 2060 2001 1879 1740 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.3 26.1 27.6 29.1 30.3 30.6 29.9 30.0 30.8 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 53.3 53.4 53.3 53.2 52.3 50.3 47.1 43.9 43.1 44.5 45.7 46.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 10 13 14 9 2 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 16 12 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -13. -20. -23. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 28. 28. 28. 26. 28. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)