* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 55 64 72 78 81 77 71 64 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 55 64 72 78 81 77 71 64 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 54 60 64 67 68 66 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 11 10 12 9 5 7 10 11 5 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 3 9 4 3 6 10 8 SHEAR DIR 91 115 122 93 91 87 68 96 42 59 35 255 278 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.5 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 146 145 143 140 136 134 131 126 118 114 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 61 60 56 49 54 54 52 42 32 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 16 18 18 19 20 21 19 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 -1 1 16 41 28 26 11 14 30 39 40 200 MB DIV 20 63 79 99 111 120 53 44 37 29 14 -7 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 0 1 0 -3 -9 -13 -8 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 770 794 836 893 943 1079 1262 1344 1440 1516 1568 1661 1817 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.3 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.3 107.6 108.8 109.9 111.9 114.3 116.5 118.4 120.1 121.8 123.6 125.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 7 6 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 9. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 29. 37. 43. 46. 42. 36. 29. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##