* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 51 55 59 63 60 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 51 55 59 63 60 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 31 33 35 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 32 33 27 25 22 29 44 46 25 17 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 7 2 2 2 3 5 0 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 246 249 245 230 218 226 205 210 209 234 281 316 299 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.4 24.4 23.7 22.7 22.7 22.8 22.7 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 118 115 110 103 99 90 87 89 89 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 106 105 102 98 94 89 79 75 77 77 75 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.5 -55.8 -55.5 -55.9 -57.2 -57.6 -58.3 -59.1 -59.2 -58.4 -57.7 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 53 53 51 50 52 52 57 57 41 36 34 36 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 19 19 19 20 20 23 27 30 26 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 113 109 110 107 105 118 127 131 89 45 26 13 24 200 MB DIV 64 65 97 101 85 92 62 59 60 7 5 12 46 700-850 TADV -1 7 9 4 -1 7 -18 -51 -29 -4 9 19 9 LAND (KM) 1489 1536 1587 1668 1752 1947 1817 1775 1836 1866 1787 1662 1502 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.5 27.5 29.3 31.0 32.7 33.9 33.8 33.7 34.4 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 52.5 52.4 52.1 51.8 50.4 47.2 43.1 39.4 39.0 40.7 41.9 41.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 13 18 18 9 3 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 13 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -5. -13. -18. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 12. 9. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 30. 34. 38. 35. 32. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/21/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)