* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 63 72 77 81 79 77 67 56 47 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 63 72 77 81 79 77 67 56 47 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 54 58 65 69 71 71 68 63 55 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 11 12 5 5 11 3 5 10 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 2 8 7 12 10 14 11 11 SHEAR DIR 101 131 111 104 113 102 105 46 77 99 190 226 232 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 143 138 135 134 127 119 114 114 117 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.1 -54.1 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 59 58 61 61 58 54 48 53 48 43 32 21 13 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 16 17 19 20 20 20 18 20 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -5 9 30 32 34 22 14 34 50 79 36 200 MB DIV 45 64 63 77 95 92 47 47 36 39 -6 -38 -46 700-850 TADV 1 -2 1 1 3 0 -3 -12 -4 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 760 809 867 917 981 1151 1259 1346 1431 1502 1579 1692 1836 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.6 108.7 109.9 111.0 113.3 115.4 117.5 119.5 121.2 122.7 124.6 126.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 9 7 4 2 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 9. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 37. 41. 39. 37. 27. 16. 7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##