* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 54 60 63 69 66 63 60 56 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 54 60 63 69 66 63 60 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 35 39 42 43 43 44 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 29 25 27 25 23 45 47 46 23 16 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 3 -2 0 -1 2 -4 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 240 230 226 206 222 195 206 196 210 220 265 277 231 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.4 23.7 22.2 20.9 20.9 21.0 20.2 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 114 112 109 103 100 91 81 79 81 80 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 103 101 98 97 94 92 82 72 69 72 73 70 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 -56.7 -57.8 -58.7 -58.9 -60.1 -60.2 -59.5 -58.3 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 51 48 55 60 51 39 38 40 46 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 19 19 20 19 20 22 29 26 23 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 104 97 98 118 132 132 63 10 -25 18 108 200 MB DIV 76 87 86 81 76 77 62 72 37 9 24 47 72 700-850 TADV 5 6 4 -1 3 -18 -35 -59 -51 -12 12 14 21 LAND (KM) 1656 1713 1774 1872 1946 1803 1744 1779 1844 1857 1723 1549 1395 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.3 31.0 32.8 34.9 36.4 36.4 36.8 38.3 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 51.7 51.6 51.1 50.5 47.8 43.6 38.8 35.7 35.5 37.1 38.0 37.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 12 17 21 18 8 3 7 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -14. -18. -19. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 11. 8. 5. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 30. 33. 39. 36. 33. 30. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/21/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)