* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 72 76 81 84 82 78 70 59 47 35 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 72 76 81 84 82 78 70 59 47 35 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 70 75 78 81 81 79 75 67 56 45 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 12 5 7 6 7 3 10 18 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 0 4 12 11 15 12 8 9 5 SHEAR DIR 146 132 123 120 119 13 74 46 208 231 241 250 254 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 142 141 136 134 131 125 117 111 109 109 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 54 55 52 46 47 46 34 27 24 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 15 15 14 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -4 6 25 32 31 23 10 14 24 51 40 10 200 MB DIV 51 36 40 57 79 64 58 47 44 18 -6 -17 -25 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 3 2 -3 -5 -7 0 0 3 0 3 LAND (KM) 828 877 922 992 1070 1219 1281 1347 1436 1474 1529 1597 1660 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.9 110.0 111.1 112.2 114.5 116.4 118.2 120.0 121.7 123.4 124.6 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 7 4 4 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 26. 29. 27. 23. 15. 4. -8. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##