* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 52 59 66 73 74 70 68 66 64 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 52 59 66 73 74 70 68 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 42 42 44 47 49 48 47 48 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 28 31 25 30 35 42 19 17 16 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 4 -2 0 0 2 7 5 0 -2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 227 222 218 225 218 210 206 205 199 217 258 265 269 SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.2 22.1 20.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.1 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 104 101 99 96 91 85 77 74 75 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 95 91 88 88 88 85 78 69 66 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.3 -56.2 -56.4 -57.1 -57.7 -58.8 -59.3 -60.0 -60.6 -59.9 -59.1 -59.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 47 47 45 52 55 42 40 42 50 57 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 18 19 20 20 22 29 30 24 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 90 88 82 86 98 108 138 111 57 10 -17 28 31 200 MB DIV 76 88 76 80 85 70 81 88 80 20 11 22 18 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 -6 0 -16 -33 -33 -14 -13 7 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1748 1801 1857 1908 1837 1747 1744 1810 1915 1914 1804 1691 1689 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.1 28.9 29.6 30.3 31.7 33.4 35.5 36.6 36.8 37.1 37.9 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 51.7 51.6 51.0 50.4 47.0 42.2 37.4 34.4 34.2 35.5 36.3 35.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 9 12 19 22 18 7 3 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 10. 5. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 31. 38. 39. 35. 33. 31. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)