* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 81 85 86 85 79 71 60 48 36 28 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 81 85 86 85 79 71 60 48 36 28 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 79 82 84 82 78 73 67 58 48 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 7 3 4 6 6 7 12 13 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 0 4 9 16 13 11 11 10 4 2 SHEAR DIR 144 134 143 156 340 3 52 155 207 234 255 273 310 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 140 135 130 127 121 115 113 111 110 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -53.3 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 53 50 48 46 50 46 35 31 31 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 17 17 17 14 14 14 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -1 7 21 25 22 26 4 6 12 28 35 15 -18 200 MB DIV 47 55 58 76 61 64 29 67 22 -2 -25 -29 20 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 0 -1 -7 -2 1 0 4 4 9 LAND (KM) 878 927 987 1062 1144 1249 1316 1377 1438 1514 1622 1699 1757 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.2 111.2 112.3 113.3 115.4 117.3 119.1 120.9 122.6 124.1 125.4 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 4 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 16. 20. 21. 20. 14. 6. -5. -17. -29. -37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##