* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 54 58 62 60 57 51 46 42 39 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 54 58 62 60 57 51 46 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 46 47 48 49 49 45 41 41 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 28 30 26 25 35 47 60 51 29 23 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 1 0 0 -4 -9 -2 1 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 220 218 217 220 201 210 215 237 271 293 309 273 264 SST (C) 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.0 23.6 22.9 21.8 20.1 19.3 19.2 20.0 19.8 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 101 99 97 95 90 81 75 74 77 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 90 90 89 88 88 83 75 68 67 69 69 69 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.9 -57.2 -57.2 -57.4 -58.5 -59.0 -60.6 -61.8 -62.1 -60.7 -60.4 -61.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 53 52 51 57 51 42 40 35 34 37 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 18 17 17 17 16 17 16 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 87 109 114 94 96 17 -95 -160 -156 -129 -116 200 MB DIV 85 94 105 103 77 75 60 48 -27 -23 4 20 -1 700-850 TADV 6 3 -4 -2 0 -23 -59 -29 -20 -1 -5 1 6 LAND (KM) 1879 1970 1924 1882 1849 1857 1956 2066 1880 1869 2043 2025 1962 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 11 13 16 21 22 16 6 5 5 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -12. -20. -24. -25. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 16. 21. 27. 34. 39. 42. 45. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 20. 17. 11. 6. 2. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)