* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 57 59 57 52 50 49 43 40 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 57 59 57 52 50 49 43 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 45 47 48 46 43 42 43 44 45 Storm Type TROP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 25 26 21 28 33 51 47 26 19 31 32 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 2 -3 0 4 3 -1 -10 -4 SHEAR DIR 218 223 227 208 208 221 234 272 288 332 296 306 268 SST (C) 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.4 22.1 21.5 20.8 20.9 21.3 22.0 22.2 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 100 99 97 91 86 79 79 81 84 87 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 90 89 89 84 77 70 69 72 73 78 79 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.0 -57.1 -57.4 -58.1 -59.1 -59.7 -61.5 -60.6 -59.7 -59.2 -58.5 -59.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 47 54 51 52 55 53 48 40 38 39 54 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 18 19 19 18 18 18 18 20 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 82 92 109 109 99 127 61 -37 -100 -87 -57 -48 -41 200 MB DIV 86 106 86 81 76 74 45 23 -20 17 55 19 7 700-850 TADV 5 4 -3 -10 -16 -22 -35 -6 -1 -4 -7 -4 4 LAND (KM) 1936 1947 1909 1876 1855 1878 2001 2072 2097 2046 1947 2076 1971 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 14 16 19 20 13 5 3 5 4 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. 41. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 17. 12. 10. 9. 3. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)