* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 100 101 100 92 80 69 58 43 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 97 100 101 100 92 80 69 58 43 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 97 99 97 93 82 72 63 54 44 36 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 1 2 5 13 4 6 8 19 29 31 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 10 12 11 13 17 14 17 10 3 6 7 SHEAR DIR 132 154 244 329 349 336 288 275 245 276 286 309 304 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 137 135 130 126 121 117 114 113 115 115 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 53 53 52 50 48 38 35 33 35 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 16 17 16 14 14 14 12 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 14 19 22 0 0 7 10 9 -8 -38 -69 200 MB DIV 54 47 44 30 41 37 35 27 35 -16 -30 -35 -21 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 -1 -5 -3 2 3 7 8 7 7 LAND (KM) 978 1055 1137 1177 1209 1276 1339 1393 1435 1521 1675 1825 1957 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.8 15.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.3 113.3 114.3 115.2 117.1 118.8 120.2 121.5 123.1 125.2 127.2 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 2 1 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 11. 10. 2. -10. -20. -32. -47. -62. -76. -87. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##