* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 47 51 51 48 41 37 34 31 30 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 47 51 51 48 41 37 34 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 42 42 40 38 39 41 44 45 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 29 30 34 41 49 38 19 14 19 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 1 2 0 -3 0 3 4 -1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 220 224 212 211 215 220 252 279 321 323 327 313 311 SST (C) 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.4 23.0 22.0 21.3 20.8 21.0 21.5 22.4 22.5 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 99 97 95 89 84 79 79 83 87 88 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 90 90 89 87 81 76 70 69 73 77 78 77 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.1 -57.4 -58.1 -58.7 -58.4 -60.8 -61.2 -60.4 -59.4 -58.8 -59.4 -60.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 51 46 40 40 38 43 58 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 16 17 17 15 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 89 94 87 83 91 75 -12 -77 -109 -86 -77 -63 -68 200 MB DIV 83 82 76 75 86 69 31 -2 -11 4 -1 -8 -33 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -5 -8 -18 -48 -19 -2 0 3 0 -2 3 LAND (KM) 1941 1907 1882 1854 1845 1908 2035 2071 2012 2033 2094 2115 1923 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.9 30.4 31.2 32.0 33.4 34.2 34.4 34.0 33.3 32.3 32.4 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 48.6 47.2 45.2 43.1 38.9 35.5 33.7 33.2 33.8 35.0 36.8 38.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 16 19 19 17 11 5 2 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 40. 44. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 11. 8. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/22/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/22/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)